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pdf.png February 2017 NRSS (Full Paper)

ACTORS AND INSTITUTIONS IN AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ALLOCATION AND NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY

(EVIDENCE FROM SUBNATIONAL JURISDICTIONS IN NIGERIA)

Abstract

Many countries in Africa have a large agricultural footprint, but do not enjoy the full benefits that the sector offers. Why do policymakers continue to under invest in those types of agricultural public goods and services that have well-known, high payoffs to the rural poor? To help clarify this conundrum, we have carried out new research that shows that budget allocations are outcomes of political choices among a variety of public actors with diverse interests and capabilities, negotiating budgets within specific political-institutional contexts. Our research draws on the framework of actor-centered institutionalism to examine empirically how actors and institutions influence agricultural budget outcomes in Nigeria. We employ a case study approach for which we selected three states (Cross River, Niger, and Ondo) and one local government area within each study state (Akamkpa, Wushishi, and Odigbo, respectively) as case study sites. Our findings include the following:

Who influences government spending in agriculture? 1.) Subnational chief executives have an outsized influence on how much state and local level budgetary attention agriculture receives and which agricultural investments are prioritized. Other key actors are de fact marginal players. 2.) The types of agricultural infrastructure and services that get budgetary attention depend on their visibility and the extent to which there is a relatively short duration from incurring public expenses to the completion of outputs. 3.) Donor assistance for agriculture is directed largely to projects requiring co-investments by the state or local governments. This means that external financial support can have significant influence on the allocation of domestic subnational spending. How do institutions shape agricultural public spending? Even after a budget has undergone all the standard processes and has been signed into law, extant rules create openings for policymakers to exercise significant discretion on revising it. The constitution and laws leave room for interpretation about what the responsibilities and authorities of different tiers of government are. Due to these legal ambiguities, there are both overlaps and gaps in agricultural public spending. Efforts to strengthen intergovernmental coordination in agricultural spending are underway, but obstacles to cooperation remain.

Overall, these findings underscore the importance of understanding how governments determine public expenditure allocations and why public actors behave as they do. These insights can help guide efforts on how best to support improved efficiency and effectiveness of public spending. 



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2017-03-03
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pptx.png February 2017 NRSS (Slide Show)

ACTORS AND INSTITUTIONS IN AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ALLOCATION AND NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY

(EVIDENCE FROM SUBNATIONAL JURISDICTIONS IN NIGERIA)

Abstract

Many countries in Africa have a large agricultural footprint, but do not enjoy the full benefits that the sector offers. Why do policymakers continue to under invest in those types of agricultural public goods and services that have well-known, high payoffs to the rural poor? To help clarify this conundrum, we have carried out new research that shows that budget allocations are outcomes of political choices among a variety of public actors with diverse interests and capabilities, negotiating budgets within specific political-institutional contexts. Our research draws on the framework of actor-centered institutionalism to examine empirically how actors and institutions influence agricultural budget outcomes in Nigeria. We employ a case study approach for which we selected three states (Cross River, Niger, and Ondo) and one local government area within each study state (Akamkpa, Wushishi, and Odigbo, respectively) as case study sites. Our findings include the following:

Who influences government spending in agriculture? 1.) Subnational chief executives have an outsized influence on how much state and local level budgetary attention agriculture receives and which agricultural investments are prioritized. Other key actors are de fact marginal players. 2.) The types of agricultural infrastructure and services that get budgetary attention depend on their visibility and the extent to which there is a relatively short duration from incurring public expenses to the completion of outputs. 3.) Donor assistance for agriculture is directed largely to projects requiring co-investments by the state or local governments. This means that external financial support can have significant influence on the allocation of domestic subnational spending. How do institutions shape agricultural public spending? Even after a budget has undergone all the standard processes and has been signed into law, extant rules create openings for policymakers to exercise significant discretion on revising it. The constitution and laws leave room for interpretation about what the responsibilities and authorities of different tiers of government are. Due to these legal ambiguities, there are both overlaps and gaps in agricultural public spending. Efforts to strengthen intergovernmental coordination in agricultural spending are underway, but obstacles to cooperation remain.

Overall, these findings underscore the importance of understanding how governments determine public expenditure allocations and why public actors behave as they do. These insights can help guide efforts on how best to support improved efficiency and effectiveness of public spending. 



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2017-03-03
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pdf.png June 2017 NRSS (Full Paper)

Sub-national Government Participation in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) in Nigeria

Abstract

The relative roles of the three tiers of government in public service delivery has emerged as one of the most important topics of open and vigorous debate in the new democratic climate in Nigeria. Being a federal system of government, there have been increasing calls for intergovernmental fiscal relations in the country to be reassessed in light of a widespread belief that although the states and LGAs are assigned primary responsibility for the delivery of basic public services, they are not equipped with adequate revenue resources to fulfil their expenditure obligations because the bulk of government revenues is retained by the federal government. This study examines the prospects and challenges of sub-national governments participation in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) recently launched by the federal government of Nigeria. Among others, the study observes that sub-national revenue potential is limited by the inter-jurisdictional mobility of economic agents, with most naturally “local” taxes having low revenue yields. Hence, typically, sub-national own-revenue sources are not commensurate with sub-national spending responsibilities, creating a vertical fiscal imbalance usually filled by fiscal transfers from the federal government. Of course, the almost exclusive reliance on federal transfers creates conditions for lack of accountability as sub-national governments may continue to shift blame and responsibility for service delivery to higher tiers of government that control the bulk of government revenues. The study also highlights the political and institutional constraints to sub-national government participation in Economic Development Plans in Nigeria, with suggestions as to how the constraints can be overcome.



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2017-07-05
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pptx.png June 2017 NRSS (Slide Show)

Sub-national Government Participation in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) in Nigeria

Abstract

The relative roles of the three tiers of government in public service delivery has emerged as one of the most important topics of open and vigorous debate in the new democratic climate in Nigeria. Being a federal system of government, there have been increasing calls for intergovernmental fiscal relations in the country to be reassessed in light of a widespread belief that although the states and LGAs are assigned primary responsibility for the delivery of basic public services, they are not equipped with adequate revenue resources to fulfil their expenditure obligations because the bulk of government revenues is retained by the federal government. This study examines the prospects and challenges of sub-national governments participation in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) recently launched by the federal government of Nigeria. Among others, the study observes that sub-national revenue potential is limited by the inter-jurisdictional mobility of economic agents, with most naturally “local” taxes having low revenue yields. Hence, typically, sub-national own-revenue sources are not commensurate with sub-national spending responsibilities, creating a vertical fiscal imbalance usually filled by fiscal transfers from the federal government. Of course, the almost exclusive reliance on federal transfers creates conditions for lack of accountability as sub-national governments may continue to shift blame and responsibility for service delivery to higher tiers of government that control the bulk of government revenues. The study also highlights the political and institutional constraints to sub-national government participation in Economic Development Plans in Nigeria, with suggestions as to how the constraints can be overcome.



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2017-07-05
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pdf.png July 2017 NRSS (Full Paper)

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF URBAN RENEWAL PROGRAMMES IN SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA:
THE CASE OF OGUN, OYO AND OSUN STATES.

Abstract

This study examines the forms and character of the implementation of urban renewal programmes (URPs) in three selected states in the Southwest Nigeria, namely Ogun, Osun and Oyo. The study reveals that the common factors necessitating implementation of URPs in the sampled states are the deplorable conditions of major infrastructure and negative perception of Nigerians about environmental conditions generally. Therefore, the driver of URPs in the sampled states include such factors as the desire to give the state a facelift and thereby becoming attractive to visitors and investors, as well as halting periodic accidents that claim the lives of street traders and hawkers. Urban renewal programmes in the three sampled states have taken the following forms namely, construction of roads/provision of infrastructural/social amenities (35.6%), refuse collection/environmental sanitation (17.6%), demolition of illegal structures  (5.7%), construction and clearing of drainages (3.7%), and beautification of cities/towns (2.4%).

 The implementation of URPs in general and specifically in South-West Nigeria has confronted a number of challenges. These include (i) Weak urban governance and planning; (ii) Lack of adequate institutional and legal framework; (iii) Lack of political will to ensure strict enforcement of sanitation laws; (iv) social resistance to change and new approaches; (v) Overzealous Attitude of Sanitation/traffic Officials; and (vi) lack of effective framework to ensuring truly inclusive participation. These challenges, which are largely systemic and institutional, but also human-related issues, have individually and collectively undermined the success of urban regeneration in Nigeria. Among others, the study recommends that implementation of URPs should be preceded by a conduct of environmental impact assessment, proper education and enlightenment of people on issues of urban renewal, ensuring involvement of private sector (in form of public private partnership), providing an institutional framework for URPs, and ensuring strict enforcement of legislations on environmental sanitation



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2017-08-10
1.01 MB
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pptx.png July 2017 NRSS (Slide Show)

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF URBAN RENEWAL PROGRAMMES IN SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA:
THE CASE OF OGUN, OYO AND OSUN STATES.

Abstract

This study examines the forms and character of the implementation of urban renewal programmes (URPs) in three selected states in the Southwest Nigeria, namely Ogun, Osun and Oyo. The study reveals that the common factors necessitating implementation of URPs in the sampled states are the deplorable conditions of major infrastructure and negative perception of Nigerians about environmental conditions generally. Therefore, the driver of URPs in the sampled states include such factors as the desire to give the state a facelift and thereby becoming attractive to visitors and investors, as well as halting periodic accidents that claim the lives of street traders and hawkers. Urban renewal programmes in the three sampled states have taken the following forms namely, construction of roads/provision of infrastructural/social amenities (35.6%), refuse collection/environmental sanitation (17.6%), demolition of illegal structures  (5.7%), construction and clearing of drainages (3.7%), and beautification of cities/towns (2.4%).

 The implementation of URPs in general and specifically in South-West Nigeria has confronted a number of challenges. These include (i) Weak urban governance and planning; (ii) Lack of adequate institutional and legal framework; (iii) Lack of political will to ensure strict enforcement of sanitation laws; (iv) social resistance to change and new approaches; (v) Overzealous Attitude of Sanitation/traffic Officials; and (vi) lack of effective framework to ensuring truly inclusive participation. These challenges, which are largely systemic and institutional, but also human-related issues, have individually and collectively undermined the success of urban regeneration in Nigeria. Among others, the study recommends that implementation of URPs should be preceded by a conduct of environmental impact assessment, proper education and enlightenment of people on issues of urban renewal, ensuring involvement of private sector (in form of public private partnership), providing an institutional framework for URPs, and ensuring strict enforcement of legislations on environmental sanitation



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2017-08-10
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pptx.png August 2017 NRSS (Slide Show)

THE RESPONSE OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TO GOVERNMENT POLICIES IN NIGERIA

Abstract

In view of the perceived benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow into host countries, various Nigerian governments have attempted to stimulate the inflow of foreign direct investment through various policies. Current challenges in the economy have further rekindled the need to explore the options for stimulating FDI inflows to Nigeria. The study analysed the response of FDI to select government policies in Nigeria and also explored the connection between non-oil export and foreign direct investment as well as the association between non-oil export and the growth of the economy. Standard autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and primary research of stakeholders’ perception were used to determine the underlying factors driving FDI behavior in Nigeria.

Findings reveal that a robust positive relationship exists between the growth of GDP and non-oil exports during the period of investigation. The high exchange rate was discovered to adversely impinge on the growth of the economy and political stability was established as a critical factor in the growth of the economy. Non-oil export was found to be significantly dependent on the inflow of foreign direct investment in the long run while exchange rate depreciation improves non-oil export in Nigeria. The positive impact of growth in the GDP on non-oil exports is also demonstrated. Foreign investment inflows into the country has been lopsided in favour of portfolio investment or ‘hot money’ which is subject to sudden reversals. The key policy variables found to affect FDI inflows to Nigeria are the exchange rate and the interest rate captured by the monetary policy rate (MPR). While exchange rate depreciation is supportive of increased FDI inflows, the effect of MPR on FDI inflows is negative implying that increases in the monetary policy rate discourages the inflow of FDI to Nigeria. Inflation is a key variable which adversely impacts on FDI inflows but the degree of openness of the economy positively affects the inflow of FDI. Other non-policy factors affecting FDI inflows are the GDP growth rate and non-oil export. Both factors were found to induce FDI inflows to the country.

The stakeholders interviewed identified infrastructure, exchange rate stability, political will, competitiveness, security, and ease of doing business as the most important factors influencing FDI inflow to the Nigerian economy. Other factors include inflation and corruption. Stakeholders are generally of the opinion that attracting FDI into Nigeria will positively impact several macroeconomic variables notably employment, non-oil export, industrial output, development of infrastructure, intermediate goods import, exchange rates, GDP and consumption of goods and services. Against these findings, recommendations are made on policies to further attract FDI inflow to Nigeria to include exchange rate stability;lower MPR ultimately leading to a drop in the inflation rate; reduction in cost of doing business; faster infrastructural development and stricter law enforcement to intensifythe war against corruption in all forms and at all levels as well as ensure corporate governance compliance. The various promises made to the people of Niger Delta such as the building of modular refineries, infrastructural development in the region, etc should be honoured to further enhance the security in the country and boost FDI inflows.FDI policies must be applied with discretion from a multisectoral perspective in order to avoid crowding out of domestic investment and foreign domination of the economy.



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2017-09-07
1.66 MB
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pdf.png August 2017 NRSS (Full Paper)

THE RESPONSE OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TO GOVERNMENT POLICIES IN NIGERIA

Abstract

In view of the perceived benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow into host countries, various Nigerian governments have attempted to stimulate the inflow of foreign direct investment through various policies. Current challenges in the economy have further rekindled the need to explore the options for stimulating FDI inflows to Nigeria. The study analysed the response of FDI to select government policies in Nigeria and also explored the connection between non-oil export and foreign direct investment as well as the association between non-oil export and the growth of the economy. Standard autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and primary research of stakeholders’ perception were used to determine the underlying factors driving FDI behavior in Nigeria.

Findings reveal that a robust positive relationship exists between the growth of GDP and non-oil exports during the period of investigation. The high exchange rate was discovered to adversely impinge on the growth of the economy and political stability was established as a critical factor in the growth of the economy. Non-oil export was found to be significantly dependent on the inflow of foreign direct investment in the long run while exchange rate depreciation improves non-oil export in Nigeria. The positive impact of growth in the GDP on non-oil exports is also demonstrated. Foreign investment inflows into the country has been lopsided in favour of portfolio investment or ‘hot money’ which is subject to sudden reversals. The key policy variables found to affect FDI inflows to Nigeria are the exchange rate and the interest rate captured by the monetary policy rate (MPR). While exchange rate depreciation is supportive of increased FDI inflows, the effect of MPR on FDI inflows is negative implying that increases in the monetary policy rate discourages the inflow of FDI to Nigeria. Inflation is a key variable which adversely impacts on FDI inflows but the degree of openness of the economy positively affects the inflow of FDI. Other non-policy factors affecting FDI inflows are the GDP growth rate and non-oil export. Both factors were found to induce FDI inflows to the country.

The stakeholders interviewed identified infrastructure, exchange rate stability, political will, competitiveness, security, and ease of doing business as the most important factors influencing FDI inflow to the Nigerian economy. Other factors include inflation and corruption. Stakeholders are generally of the opinion that attracting FDI into Nigeria will positively impact several macroeconomic variables notably employment, non-oil export, industrial output, development of infrastructure, intermediate goods import, exchange rates, GDP and consumption of goods and services. Against these findings, recommendations are made on policies to further attract FDI inflow to Nigeria to include exchange rate stability;lower MPR ultimately leading to a drop in the inflation rate; reduction in cost of doing business; faster infrastructural development and stricter law enforcement to intensifythe war against corruption in all forms and at all levels as well as ensure corporate governance compliance. The various promises made to the people of Niger Delta such as the building of modular refineries, infrastructural development in the region, etc should be honoured to further enhance the security in the country and boost FDI inflows.FDI policies must be applied with discretion from a multisectoral perspective in order to avoid crowding out of domestic investment and foreign domination of the economy.



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2017-09-07
1.29 MB
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pdf.png September 2017 NRSS (Full Paper)

COMPETITIVENESS OF THE   NIGERIA TEXTILE INDUSTRY 

Private Sector Group

Economic Policy Research Dept. (EPRD), NISER, Ibadan

Presnted by

Bashir Adelowo WAHAB 

Abstract

It is on record that the contribution of Nigerian textile industry accounted for 25percent of manufacturing employment between 1980 and 1999, and that until the 1980s, the textile industry was the biggest manufacturing industry in Nigeria and the third largest in the whole of Africa, after Egypt and South Africa. In recent times however, the contribution of Nigerian textile industry to manufacturing output and employment generation has been on the decline. There were about 128 modern textile firms operating in Nigeria in the 1980s but this decreased to less than 45 in 2008 and as at 2015, there were only 33 active firms. Presently, less than 30 modern textile firms are in operation. This study examined the factors determining the competitiveness of firms in the Nigerian textile industry. Competitiveness can be broadly defined as ability related to sustained superior performance.

A mix of case study and survey approaches was adopted in which the former was used for modern while the latter was used for traditional firms. Eight modern firms were purposely selected across four clustered textile areas, while 50 traditional firms were randomly selected from each of the four clustered areas making a total of 200 traditional firms. Primary and secondary data were collected from MAN, NTMA, and selected textile firms, NBS, RMRDC and CBN Statistical Bulletin. Data was analysed using both descriptive (simple percentage, frequency distribution and tabulation of data) and inferential statistics. Binary logistic regression was used to analyse the factors that determine competiveness of firms in the traditional textile industry. For the modern textile firms, some of the major findings are that all the firms operate below their installed capacity; sales and patronage is low; and very weak linkages exist between them and the traditional textile firms. The results of the binary logit regression showed that firm competitiveness proxied as ‘profitability’ is positively affected by adoption of new production process, product patronage, sales in the last three months and product price in the last three months.

Recommendations of the study are among others, to improve capacity utilization of firms through the provision of critical infrastructure; the CTG intervention fund should be increased and extended to reach traditional textile firms; firms should begin to look inwards in terms of fabricating local technology. Finally, government should be more strategic in its relationship with the WTO to ensure that the industry is protected and given incentives that will enable it satisfy local demands and compete globally.



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2017-11-08
1.08 MB
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pptx.png September 2017 NRSS (Slide Show)

COMPETITIVENESS OF THE   NIGERIA TEXTILE INDUSTRY

Private Sector Group

Economic Policy Research Dept. (EPRD), NISER, Ibadan

Presented By

Bashir Adelowo WAHAB

Abstract

It is on record that the contribution of Nigerian textile industry accounted for 25 percent of manufacturing employment between 1980 and 1999, and that until the 1980s, the textile industry was the biggest manufacturing industry in Nigeria and the third largest in the whole of Africa, after Egypt and South Africa. In recent times however, the contribution of Nigerian textile industry to manufacturing output and employment generation has been on the decline. There were about 128 modern textile firms operating in Nigeria in the 1980s but this decreased to less than 45 in 2008 and as at 2015, there were only 33 active firms. Presently, less than 30 modern textile firms are in operation. This study examined the factors determining the competitiveness of firms in the Nigerian textile industry. Competitiveness can be broadly defined as ability related to sustained superior performance.

A mix of case study and survey approaches was adopted in which the former was used for modern while the latter was used for traditional firms. Eight modern firms were purposely selected across four clustered textile areas, while 50 traditional firms were randomly selected from each of the four clustered areas making a total of 200 traditional firms. Primary and secondary data were collected from MAN, NTMA, and selected textile firms, NBS, RMRDC and CBN Statistical Bulletin. Data was analysed using both descriptive (simple percentage, frequency distribution and tabulation of data) and inferential statistics. Binary logistic regression was used to analyse the factors that determine competiveness of firms in the traditional textile industry. For the modern textile firms, some of the major findings are that all the firms operate below their installed capacity; sales and patronage is low; and very weak linkages exist between them and the traditional textile firms. The results of the binary logit regression showed that firm competitiveness proxied as ‘profitability’ is positively affected by adoption of new production process, product patronage, sales in the last three months and product price in the last three months.

Recommendations of the study are among others, to improve capacity utilization of firms through the provision of critical infrastructure; the CTG intervention fund should be increased and extended to reach traditional textile firms; firms should begin to look inwards in terms of fabricating local technology. Finally, government should be more strategic in its relationship with the WTO to ensure that the industry is protected and given incentives that will enable it satisfy local demands and compete globally.



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2017-11-08
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